Eskom Load‑Shedding Forecast – South Africa’s long-standing battle with electricity shortages may be entering a period of calm. According to Eskom’s recently released load-shedding forecast for November 2025, the country could experience zero power cuts — provided that unplanned outages remain below the critical threshold of 13 GW. This projection marks a significant moment in Eskom’s effort to rebuild confidence and operational resilience as winter peaks across the country. Historically, winter has been the most challenging season for South Africa’s power grid. Demand surges as households and industries increase heating, while aging infrastructure often struggles under pressure. Over the past decade, rolling blackouts have disrupted businesses, halted manufacturing, and strained daily life for millions. Eskom’s new forecast, however, injects optimism into an otherwise cautious public mood. In this context, Eskom’s performance has been slowly but steadily improving. With the return of several units from long-term maintenance, improved coal quality, and strategic use of diesel peaking plants, Eskom is better positioned than it has been in years. Still, the utility warns that the margin for error remains narrow. Any sharp rise in breakdowns could push the country back into rotational cuts. To better understand this forecast and what it means for homes and businesses across South Africa, we dive into Eskom’s detailed outlook for November and the broader 2025 winter period.
Eskom Load‑Shedding Forecast Status
Eskom’s ability to maintain supply depends largely on how many units remain operational. The system status shows improved availability, but the margin remains tight.
- Planned maintenance: ~3,000 MW
- Current unplanned outages: ~12,500 MW
- Total available capacity: ~31,000 MW
- Peak demand for winter (expected): ~30,000 – 31,500 MW
- Diesel reserves: Adequate for emergencies
- Renewable contribution (daily average): 2,500 – 3,000 MW
Generation Capacity Breakdown (MW)
| Source | Capacity | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Coal (base load) | 24,000 | Stable but aging |
| Nuclear (Koeberg) | 1,860 | Online |
| Gas (peaking) | 2,400 | Available |
| Hydro (local + imports) | 1,800 | Available |
| Solar & Wind | 3,200 | Intermittent |
| Imports (SAPP) | 900 | Limited |
Load-Shedding Risk Factors
While forecasts look promising, several risks still linger. If certain thresholds are crossed, load-shedding could be reinstated.
- Unplanned outages exceeding 13,000 MW
- Cold fronts causing peak demand surges beyond 32,000 MW
- Delays in returning major units from maintenance
- Supply chain issues for diesel or coal
- Grid instability due to renewable fluctuations
Load-Shedding Risk Threshold Table
| Scenario | Risk Level | Load-Shedding Stage |
|---|---|---|
| Unplanned < 12,500 MW | Low | None |
| Unplanned 12,500 – 13,500 MW | Moderate | Stage 1 possible |
| Unplanned 13,500 – 15,000 MW | High | Stage 2-3 likely |
| Unplanned > 15,000 MW | Critical | Stage 4+ probable |
Progress on Maintenance and Return-to-Service Units
A key factor behind the optimistic forecast is the number of generating units returning from long-term maintenance.
- Kusile units 1–3 now fully operational
- Medupi Unit 4 synchronised ahead of schedule
- Koeberg Unit 2 expected to return mid-November
- Numerous mini-maintenance tasks completed
- Improved spare part availability
Major Units Returning to Service – Timeline
| Power Station | Unit | Capacity (MW) | Return Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kusile | Unit 3 | 800 | 1 Nov 2025 | Operational |
| Medupi | Unit 4 | 720 | 10 Nov 2025 | Testing |
| Koeberg | Unit 2 | 920 | 18 Nov 2025 | On track |
| Arnot | Unit 2 | 350 | 15 Oct 2025 | Online |
| Camden | Unit 5 | 240 | 25 Oct 2025 | Online |
| Matla | Unit 6 | 550 | 5 Nov 2025 | Commissioning |
| Hendrina | Unit 1 | 200 | 20 Nov 2025 | Pending |
Progress Made in 2025 So Far
Despite a difficult start to the year, Eskom has delivered on many of its infrastructure commitments.
- Over 4,000 MW of generation capacity restored
- Load-shedding stages peaked only at Stage 3 in July
- Diesel use reduced by 18% due to better planning
- Coal fleet Energy Availability Factor (EAF) up to 57%
Renewable Energy Impact and Forecast
Renewables continue to play a supporting role in Eskom’s load management strategy. Though intermittent, solar and wind ease pressure during peak daylight hours and windy evenings.
- Wind generation peaks at night in coastal regions
- Solar contributes ~1,500 MW during peak sunlight
- Battery storage now adds short-term support (~300 MW)
- New IPP projects to add 1,200 MW by Q1 2026
Key Renewable Projects in Progress
- Northern Cape solar farms (350 MW) – 80% complete
- Eastern Cape wind farms (400 MW) – Commissioning starts Dec 2025
- Battery Energy Storage (BESS) Phase 1 – 200 MW installed at 5 sites
Government and Policy Support
The government’s active role in energy reform has started yielding results. Key interventions include regulatory changes, funding, and partnerships.
- Emergency procurement extended till mid-2026
- Exemption on diesel import duties for Eskom
- Easing of grid connection requirements for IPPs
- Municipalities allowed to procure directly from IPPs
Public and Private Sector Collaboration
- 2,800 MW procured via RMIPPPP (Risk Mitigation IPP Procurement)
- Eskom working with private firms on grid upgrades
- Public-private partnerships for transmission projects under negotiation
Consumer Expectations and Load-Shedding Schedules
For now, South Africans can expect relative relief — but preparedness remains key. Eskom will continue to update its schedules weekly.
- Load-shedding probability: Low for November
- Consumers should monitor official app and platforms
- Solar backup solutions remain advisable
- Businesses urged to maintain energy efficiency protocols
Load-Shedding Schedule Strategy
Eskom’s rotational schedule remains on standby. Priority remains protecting hospitals, water pumping stations, and communication hubs.
- Stage 1: 1,000 MW cut rotationally – Low impact
- Stage 2: 2,000 MW – Manageable with planning
- Stage 3+: Disruptive, only in extreme cases
Tips for Households and Small Businesses
Even with a positive forecast, staying prepared is crucial.
- Invest in LED lighting and inverter backup
- Charge essential devices in the morning
- Maintain water storage in case of pump shutdowns
- Businesses: stagger shifts to reduce peak demand
- Install surge protection for sensitive electronics
Eskom November 2025 Power Availability Table
| Category | Value | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Available Capacity | 31,000 MW | Includes 2,400 MW peakers |
| Planned Maintenance | 3,000 MW | Seasonally low |
| Unplanned Breakdowns | 12,500 MW | Within safe margin |
| Peak Demand Forecast | 30,500 MW | Slightly higher than Oct |
| Surplus/Deficit Margin | +500 MW | Subject to fluctuations |
| Renewable Contribution | 2,800 MW avg | Varies day-to-day |
| Diesel Reserves | Adequate | For peaking use only |
| Load-Shedding Forecast | Zero | If unplanned < 13,000 MW |
With cautious optimism, South Africa faces a winter where the lights may finally stay on. While Eskom’s road to recovery is far from over, the November 2025 outlook offers a glimpse of what stable power supply could look like — and what it will take to sustain it.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Is Eskom truly predicting zero load-shedding for November 2025?
Yes, Eskom has forecast zero load-shedding provided that unplanned outages remain under 13,000 MW and demand doesn’t surge unexpectedly.
Q2: What happens if the 13 GW unplanned outage limit is exceeded?
Load-shedding may be reinstated at Stage 1 or higher, depending on the magnitude of the shortfall.
Q3: Will Koeberg’s Unit 2 returning help stabilize the grid?
Absolutely. Koeberg’s Unit 2 adds 920 MW of reliable base load power, easing overall supply constraints.
Q4: Are renewables enough to avoid power cuts on their own?
Not yet. While solar and wind assist greatly, they cannot replace base load due to intermittency and storage limitations.
Q5: What should households do during this period?
Continue using energy efficiently and stay updated with Eskom’s official announcements. Having backup power remains a wise precaution.
Q6: Has there been any improvement in Eskom’s plant performance?
Yes, Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has improved from 51% to around 57% this year, showing positive operational trends.
Q7: Is diesel still being heavily used?
No, Eskom has reduced diesel use by optimizing peak plant usage and better managing base load performance.
Q8: How likely is load-shedding in December or early 2026?
Too early to say definitively. But if maintenance plans stay on track, the risk should remain low through the summer.