Eskom Load‑Shedding Update – South Africa’s long-standing battle with load-shedding continues to make headlines as Eskom, the national electricity utility, provides a fresh update on its power supply outlook heading into the tail end of winter. As of mid-September 2025, the good news is that Eskom has managed to maintain relative stability, with no national load-shedding expected—provided unplanned outages remain below 13,000 megawatts (13 GW). This update offers a critical breather for both households and industries that have endured years of unpredictable electricity cuts. While confidence in Eskom remains shaky, this momentary reprieve reflects a strategic shift in operations and resource allocation. The power utility has credited its improved performance to higher levels of energy availability, consistent maintenance of aging infrastructure, and a milder-than-expected winter in certain regions. However, challenges still loom. South Africa’s electricity grid is fragile, and even minor changes in demand or unplanned technical failures could tilt the balance toward load-shedding. The key lies in monitoring the Energy Availability Factor (EAF), managing diesel usage effectively, and continuing to coordinate with Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This article breaks down the latest load-shedding forecast, looks at Eskom’s operational performance, outlines potential risk scenarios, and discusses long-term energy planning strategies. Read on for a detailed and data-rich look into South Africa’s current power outlook and what it means for your household or business.
Eskom Load‑Shedding Update and Risk Level
South Africans can breathe a sigh of relief—for now. As of September 2025, the grid remains stable thanks to effective management of supply and demand.
- No load-shedding is currently scheduled nationally
- Eskom will maintain the status quo if unplanned outages stay below 13 GW
- Risk remains moderate, especially during peak evening hours
Breakdown of Current System Outlook
This table summarizes key system indicators reported by Eskom for mid-September 2025:
| Metric | Status | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Unplanned outages | ~12,500 MW | Below critical 13,000 MW threshold |
| Energy Availability Factor | 63.2% | Improved from 59.1% in July |
| Diesel usage (OCGTs) | Moderate | Usage optimized for peak hours |
| Peak evening demand | 32,100 MW | Within manageable range |
| Planned maintenance | 4,300 MW | Ongoing but limited impact |
| Renewables contribution | 6,700 MW | Wind and solar support grid stability |
| Grid reserves | Adequate | Emergency reserves not yet deployed |
Factors Keeping Load-Shedding at Bay
A few crucial improvements and operational shifts are helping Eskom maintain control of the grid this season.
- Increased reliability from high-performing coal units
- Short-term boost from diesel-fired generation during peaks
- Positive contributions from solar and wind energy
- Reduced weather-driven demand due to milder winter
Eskom’s Recent Maintenance Strategy
Eskom’s decision to maintain critical generating units during off-peak hours is bearing fruit.
| Plant Name | Units Maintained | Completion Date | Impact on Grid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kendal | 2 of 6 units | 10 Sept 2025 | +1,200 MW stable |
| Lethabo | 1 of 6 units | 6 Sept 2025 | Reduced emissions |
| Medupi | 1 of 6 units | 3 Sept 2025 | +800 MW reliable |
| Matla | 1 of 6 units | 1 Sept 2025 | Improved output |
| Kusile | Full operational | Ongoing | Higher EAF |
Potential Risks That Could Trigger Load-Shedding
Despite improvements, South Africa is not entirely out of the woods. A few key scenarios could disrupt current stability.
- Any increase in unplanned outages beyond 13 GW could force Stage 1 or 2 load-shedding
- Failure of large-scale generators, such as Medupi or Kusile units
- Unexpected cold front increasing demand significantly
- Fuel supply issues or price hikes affecting diesel generators
Key Thresholds to Watch This Month
Keep an eye on these metrics that may signal a shift in the load-shedding risk level:
| Threshold | Safe Zone | Risk Zone |
|---|---|---|
| Unplanned outages | <13,000 MW | >13,000 MW |
| Peak evening demand | <33,000 MW | >35,000 MW |
| Diesel availability (OCGTs) | Sufficient | Depleted or delayed |
| Reserve margin | >2,000 MW | <1,000 MW |
Eskom’s Medium-Term Outlook (Q3-Q4 2025)
The utility has published its medium-term outlook covering the final months of 2025. Stability is possible, but only if conditions remain favorable.
- October to December 2025 expected to remain load-shedding-free under ideal circumstances
- Scheduled maintenance to increase slightly but remains controlled
- IPP contributions to rise due to summer solar capacity
Generation Forecast (October–December 2025)
| Month | Forecasted Demand | Available Capacity | Risk of Load-Shedding |
|---|---|---|---|
| October | 30,800 MW | 33,500 MW | Low |
| November | 30,500 MW | 32,700 MW | Moderate |
| December | 31,100 MW | 33,000 MW | Low to Moderate |
Role of Renewable Energy and IPPs
Renewable energy continues to play a stabilizing role, even if still insufficient to replace baseload demand.
- Wind farms contribute around 3,200 MW daily during evening peaks
- Solar PV farms add up to 3,500 MW midday, reducing demand on coal
- Independent Power Producers expected to add 1,500 MW by end of 2025
Integration Challenges and Progress
Though the contribution from renewables is growing, challenges remain in fully integrating them into the national grid.
Grid Limitations Holding Back Growth
- Existing transmission infrastructure is outdated and overloaded
- Storage solutions for solar and wind energy still under development
- Regulatory hurdles for new renewable projects
Promising Developments from Private Sector
- Private solar installations on commercial properties rising sharply
- Mining sector investing in off-grid solar and wind plants
- Eskom opening more bid windows for renewables under REIPPPP
Public Response and Outlook for 2026
Public reaction to the September update has been cautiously optimistic. Businesses and residents are planning cautiously, knowing that conditions can change rapidly.
How Households Are Responding
- Battery storage systems and inverters becoming more common
- Smart meters and usage tracking apps help manage consumption
- Hybrid systems combining solar, battery, and Eskom connection on the rise
Anticipated Grid Evolution in 2026
- Additional 3,000 MW expected from new IPPs
- Long-delayed grid upgrade projects scheduled to begin
- Expanded transmission infrastructure to accommodate renewable energy zones
FAQs on Load-Shedding and Eskom Update
- What is the current load-shedding status in South Africa?
13 GW limit. - Why is the 13 GW threshold critical for Eskom?
13,000 MW - How has Eskom managed to maintain electricity supply this winter?
Improved plant performance - Are renewable energy sources helping reduce the risk of load-shedding?
Yes - What should households do to prepare in case load-shedding returns?
installing solar panels or battery backup systems.